Thursday, January 24, 2008

Forex Forecasting

Forex Forecasting

Basic Forex forecast methods: Technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.

Technical analysis
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.

Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.

2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.

3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.

Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:
* Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
* Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
* Waves (Elliott wave theory)
* Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
* Trends (following moving average).

Some major technical analysis tools are described below:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).

Stochastic oscillator:
This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line, which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.

Number theory:
Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.

Gann numbers:
W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over $50 million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas.

Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.

Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending.

A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.

Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The most common technical tools:
Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows.

DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.

Unlike the fundamental analyst, the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market, but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market.

Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. In practice, many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments, whereas the fundamental analyst needs to know a particular market intimately. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy.

The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect. Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.

Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

Forex Software

Forex Software

Forex trading software helps investors working in the sometimes complicated area of foreign exchange transactions and should be looked at by all serious investors.

Using the older methods of reading hard copy newsletters, magazines and books worked well during its day and age, but today decisions need to be made quickly, and having access to up to date information and the ability to make a trade quickly is something that forex trading software offers the investor and it greatly increases the ability of an investor trader to work the market resulting in profit.

For the investor who is interested in acquiring forex trading software there are many good options. Checking with a financial advisor you trust to see what forex trading software he or she recommends can be a good place to start. Also going online and doing a web search of forex trading software can show many programs available.

Many people when going online will log onto message forums or join online groups that discuss forex trading and see what other traders like to use. Simply posting a message on the group asking what forex trading software is poplar and what the advantages and disadvantages of each program are can add to a person’s knowledge base and allow him or her to make a good decision when purchasing forex trading software.

Remember also that some specific forex trading software programs are available for short free trial periods. Experimenting with several programs will help an investor make a decision as to which forex trading software will offer the options and ease of use desired. This try it before you buy it approach will help a person avoid decisions that might be regretted later

.If, as an investor, you are using one of the many reliable online trading systems, the company that you are working through may have forex trading software they can furnish you. Often this is available for quick and easy download to your home computer and is already set up for optimum operation with the system with which you are working.

If your company does not provide forex trading software they probably have programs that they can recommend, that they and their members have had good luck with in the past. Always ask what forex trading software they recommend before making a purchase.Since the companies that manufacture and market forex trading software are competing for your business their advertisements and websites will list many of the positive features of their product.

They often offer free e-books or free e-zines that provide information on forex trading. If a company is able to provide you with this information take a close and serious look at what they are offering. Consider this a part of your forex trading education, and learn from it. Use it as a way to add to your personal knowledge base and you’ll benefit.

Remember that the many choices of forex trading software are there because individuals involved in forex trading have different needs and different preferences, so learning all you can about a program, and about the forex trading market itself before buying will always pay off.

Forex(FX) Trading

Forex(FX) Trading Strategy

A forex trading strategy can provide profit for a skilled speculator. A FX trading strategy is, simply put, a method for using foreign exchange rates of currency from various countries to buy one country’s currency when it is undervalued, and exchange it for another country’s currency with it is of normal or higher value, with the difference being profit.

A common forex trading strategy could involve US dollars and the Euro, the official currency of most European countries. To use a simple example of a forex trading strategy, a speculator would buy Euros when they were undervalued; let’s say two Euros equaled one US dollar. This would be unusual because normally the two currencies are almost equal.

By spending one hundred US dollars to buy two hundred Euros a speculator would be able to buy more goods in Germany, France or other European countries. When the market changed and became more even, the speculator would have twice as many goods as he normally would have, and would be able to exchange those goods for US dollars once again.

The difference would be profit. This is a very simple explanation of a forex trading strategy, but gives the basics to the new speculator.Of course, when coming up with a forex trading strategy the trader should only use money that he or she can afford to loose. This is speculation, as opposed to investment. The chances for profit are real, and could come quick but if the market turns the opposite way than expected the trader could actually loose money.

A forex trading strategy can reap large profits, but if anyone tells you that all trades will result in profit, they haven’t studied the market as well as they should have and they are not correct. Still having a sound forex trading strategy for a competent businessman can be a profitable venture. It requires study of the markets, which takes time and is usually best accomplished by reading financial newsletters and using tools available on the Internet.

Getting the advice of a professional forex trading strategy specialist can also be a sound choice. Professionals have the time, education and skills and can generally help a trader come up with a forex trading strategy that will result in profit more often than one could do without their help.The most sound forex trading strategy options are generally used by large multinational corporations who are often able to make steady profits.

Watching what large corporations do who are involved in forex trading, looking for patterns they may have set, can help a trader to get the benefit of the very expensive expertise used by these large companies. Making watching of the large traders a part of a person’s education is definitely a good place to start a forex trading education. Identifying the state of the market, determining the time frame you are working in, and the currencies that have fluctuation and getting the advice of professionals through self study can be the wisest forex trading strategy option available.

Learn Forex Trading

Learn Forex Trading and Multiply Your Wealth

To many people that sounds amazing, and perhaps it is. It can be very profitable for investors and fortunes have been made by many. The incentive to learn forex trading is the oldest incentive by far, the incentive to make profit. If you learn forex trading you are learning how to make your money make more money for you, the goal of all investors.

If you choose to learn forex trading online you are not alone since thousands of people choose this method every year. If you learn forex trading online you have the benefit of choosing an instructor from almost anywhere in the world, or to choose multiple instructors.

When you learn forex trading in this fashion your virtual classmates could be from England, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, or any other exotic locale that you may have only read about in the past.

Obviously this diversity of culture and knowledge will be beneficial. During online chats and student discussions questions will be raised that you may not have thought of yourself, and you’ll be able to benefit by hearing the answers.

The ultimate goal of forex trading is to trade currency in a consistent manner that will result in profit. For instance, buying Euros with US dollars and then selling the Euros for more than you gave for them when the market changes.

This is the oldest rule of business, buy low and sell high. If you learn forex trading you’ll be able to do this on a scale you never would have thought possible, limited only by the amount of investment funds you have and by market conditions.



If you read about investing, you've seen the word forex trading. But because forex doesn't get much publicity in the major publications and websites, many investors don't know that forex is just short for "foreign exchange". So trading the forex market is simply trading foreign currencies.

As recently as ten years ago, currency trading had high barriers to entry, so only large banking and institutional firms had access to the tools and systems required to play in the forex trading game. Recently, however, technology has developed to the point that any individual investor can hop right in and trade with one of the many online platforms.

When buying and selling in the forex currency trading system market, you'll see that there are four "currency pairs" that dominate the percentage of trades. Those four are the Euro vs U.S. Dollar, US Dollar vs Japanese Yen, US Dollar vs Swiss Franc, and US Dollar vs British Pound.

The goal when investing in currency is to be holding a currency that appreciates in value in relation to the other currencies. To use an overly simplistic example, if you bought 50 British Pounds for 100 US Dollars, held the Pounds for 1 week, and in that period the value of Pounds increased in relation to US Dollars, you could then convert those Pounds back into dollars for, say, $120.

Unlike the domestic stock markets, the forex currency trading is open for trades 24 hours a day. Much like the phrase "it's always noon somewhere," it's always business hours at some region of the globe. Since every country trades on the FX market, and it's open all day, the daily volume is roughly $1.2 trillion, which dwarfs that of the NYSE. Another comparison to make in order to truly realize the magnitude of the forex market is with the currency futures market (which has around 1% of the daily volume).

One other important distinction to make is that forex currency trading is not centered on an exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. There is no central body or organization required to act as middleman. Trading circulates between major banking centers around the world.

Until recently, there were strict financial requirements and massive minimum transaction sizes which prevented individual investors from trading. But with the advent of the internet came the FX brokers. A forex currency broker is similar to an online stock trading account such as etrade.

Anybody can open an account and buy and sell in any quantity. Because the brokers have thousands of investors placing orders through them, they are able to meet the large minimum transaction size by purchasing in large blocks and distributing currency amongst the purchasing investors.

Although it is now easy to start trading forex, it is a complicated and complex market. While it offers fantastic opportunity for wealth, it is also very easy to lose your shirt in a hurry. Before trading forex, do your homework and read as much as you can find before investing your hard earned money.